As I write this, The Chronicle has published some information about average household incomes in different areas of the region. To be honest, there's few surprises, but I think that a look at history might be interesting - and more so I provide some personal thoughts about the future.
No matter what Henry Ford said (“history is bunk”) – I think we can learn lessons from the past to shape our future better.
So in Newcastle, apparently the lowest income areas are Walker North and South, followed by Elswick and Benwell. At the top of the pile is South Gosforth, High Heaton and North Gosforth. No great surprises; Walker is dominated by local authority housing, and Elswick and Benwell are dominated by Tyneside flats as well as local authority housing. At the top of the pile, most of the housing stock is privately owned. The housing styles reflect the populations of the areas.
150 years ago though, Benwell was a very well regarded suburb. The big houses in Jesmond’s ‘Golden Triangle’ are nothing compared to the grand houses of Benwell such as Condercum House, owned by John Frederick Weidner, the owner of Finlays tobacconists, and Oakfield, home of Christian John Reid – whose eponymous jewellers is still trading in Blackett Street. It has long been traditional for the better suburbs of most towns and cities to be to the west, though Jesmond (to the east) was starting to have an impact in the early years of the last century.
But what’s all this got to do with commercial property? And what do I mean by learning from history?
Business, by and large, follows the consumer, not the other way around. True, there are world famous and nationally famous businesses that are ‘destinations’ – Selfridges, Harrods and the commodity and Stock Exchanges in London, and Fenwick in Newcastle – maybe even Reids the Jewellers. But by and large businesses, particularly in retail, will follow the demograph they aim to serve. In a microcosm they will often cluster, but the cluster is usually close to their market. It’s one reason that town centres will (if the planners and road traffic planners can keep their ideas of banning cars) in my view survive and thrive. And now to the lesson from history. If businesses have to move to the market, then they must look for good existing markets and potential new ones. So I’m going to make a bold prediction. The lowest income areas in Northumberland are Blyth Cowpen, Ashington Hirst and Blyth Isabella. Blyth has long been considered pretty poor, but already I know of two local property investors who are buying swathes of the town, both residential and commercial. And what two things are coming to South East Northumberland in the next few years? The British Volt factory is due to open in Blyth in 2028 and before that the rail line to Ashington is due to reopen to passenger traffic, with stations at Bedlington Station, Blyth Bebside, Newsham and Seaton Delaval as well as the connection at Northumberland Park.
This will I think make Blyth and all the settlements ‘on the line’ more attractive as commuting to Newcastle (still a major draw) will be easier, and the factory, creating 3,000 jobs, is certain to have a major positive impact on the local economy.
So businesses should in my view consider this area as ‘ripe for the picking’ – while prices are low, it’s time to buy or rent land and buildings in the area ready for the future. I say this to occupiers and to property investors. I can’t promise any immediate excitement, and I don’t claim to have a crystal ball, but I do remember history that has repeated itself.
If I’m still writing in Northern Insight in 2028, I wonder if I’ll be right? Only time will tell, but I think all the ingredients are there.
