As lockdown is eased, there is diversity of opinion about the notion of a "second wave".
It is almost certain to happen, it has been the pattern of virtually all epidemics in the past and the greatest death toll during the Spanish flu pandemic in the early 20th century was incurred during a second wave, where people in denial were dancing in the streets together, not observing social distancing et cetera. This means we have to recognise that whilst we seek to get things back to normal, we simply cannot put Covid-19 behind us. Simple messages of stay at home, have become complicated by more nuanced messages that require interpretation. Many such messages are themselves evolving, part of scientific debate and often, contradictory. You can fly to Spain, but you can’t connect with more than a limited number of households, for example.
In business, the impetus is to get back to normal. Reductions in social distancing requirements will contribute to that but it is only part of the story and will only affect partial relief. There is a premium, on lapses, tolerances and in particular a wait-and-see philosophy.
We are no different to consumers. Each one of them reacts to the world from a unique perspective and defend themselves when experiencing threat in different ways. There are people who want to stay on lockdown, to work from home even if that affects the team esprit de corps in the office, people who will insist on social distancing and those who let it slip. People who want to wear face masks, whether over the nose, symbolically around the chin and those who feel it’s not necessary. We’re all different, and it’s important not to judge, but to recognise with kindness that people are doing the best they can in an uncertain situation. Whether reactions are ones of extreme caution and avoidance, or quite literally “mad abandon”, we need to extend compassion and understanding. This must also be suffused with respect and due expressions of a duty of care to our customers, colleagues, stakeholders’, families, friends and indeed, ourselves as we go about our business.
Denial is a powerful human defence mechanism. When things just get too complicated or appear insoluble or irreconcilable, it is easy just to go about as if little was happening, rather than dealing with the uncertainty one must contain. We need to face that, however, much we wish this pandemic away, this is unlikely to be the case. We can compartmentalise Covid-19 into a disease of the elderly with some unlucky younger ones, a once-in-a-lifetime event, something that predominates among certain ethnic or social groups and less so in others, something that affects men, the list appears to be added to daily. The fact remains we have a disease that is more virulent than seasonal flu and we know only slight increases in virulence overwhelms heath systems.
The business consequences could last years. Some won’t exist, others will prosper and grow exponentially. Take Sainsbury’s, who have had record takings. As with any human event, the economic impacts create winners and losers, opportunities and threats, endings and beginnings. The health state of the nation will be affected, with chronic lasting illness amongst a significant number of those affected. None Covid related deaths will increase as the health service, whilst not overwhelmed, has simply diverted its capacities away from key services, leaving many without the usual care available. For many, treatable morbidity, will change into mortality as a result. We eulogise the NHS, because of the personalities of the healers who dedicate themselves to us, but it remains a problematic and underfunded system, tossed around by the political ideology of successive governments. It is kept on life support by those who dare not do anything too radical to it lest they render themselves ineligible for office as a result of the public’s love of the institution, only to ideologically tinker with it instead. It’s a perfect storm.
Most of all the compassion in our communities, whether it’s the postman dressed up as Superman, volunteering, donations to support hard pressed causes, or people entertaining on Tik Tok, needs to remain with us. We face the prospect of pandemics being a reality in our future, exacerbated by climate change. This is not a harbinger of doom’ philosophy, but it is the realism we must now face as denial will not serve us well in the times to come!
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